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BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ)·Q1 2026 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 FY2025 (ended May 3, 2025) delivered a solid topline and strong profitability: total revenues $5.153B (+4.8% YoY), adjusted EPS $1.14 (+34% YoY), and adjusted EBITDA $285.8M (+20.9% YoY) .
  • Key operating wins: comps ex-gas +3.9% led by traffic, membership fee income +8.1% to $120.4M, and digitally-enabled comp sales +35% .
  • FY2025 guidance reaffirmed: comps ex-gas +2.0% to +3.5%, adjusted EPS $4.10–$4.30, capex ≈$800M (unchanged from March 6) .
  • Narrative drivers: EPS beat versus Street, continued membership mix shift to higher tiers (>40% penetration), Fresh 2.0 expansion into meat/seafood, strong execution in digital and real estate openings; guidance hold amid tariff uncertainty is a watch item .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Traffic and merch momentum: “Comparable club sales, excluding gas, grew by 3.9%…led by traffic and units” and “traffic grew for the 13th consecutive quarter” .
    • Membership quality inflecting: “Higher tier membership penetration grew by over 100 bps sequentially…surpassing 40% for the first time” .
    • Digital scaling with AI: “Digitally-enabled comp sales grew 35% YoY…we reduced the time required to pick an item by over 45% using autonomous inventory robots and AI” .

  • What Went Wrong

    • General merchandise softness: “General merchandise…comps decreased slightly…unfavorable weather and pressures on consumer sentiment impacted big-ticket discretionary categories” .
    • Cost pressure/SG&A deleverage: SG&A $760.9M, up YoY and ≈10 bps deleverage versus net sales due to club/gas growth and higher depreciation from owned clubs .
    • Tariffs/macro uncertainty: Management reiterated dynamic conditions; while BJ imports less than peers, they are resourcing and adjusting assortment to mitigate impacts .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026
Total Revenues ($USD Billions)$5.099 $5.279 $5.153
Net Sales ($USD Billions)$4.984 $5.162 $5.033
Diluted EPS ($USD)$1.17 $0.92 $1.13
Adjusted EPS ($USD)$1.18 $0.93 $1.14
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$229.383 $178.393 $203.645
Net Income ($USD Millions)$155.748 $122.662 $149.768
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$308.292 $264.568 $285.836

KPIs (Current Quarter)

KPIQ1 2026
Total Comparable Club Sales YoY (%)+1.6%
Comparable Club Sales ex-Gas YoY (%)+3.9%
Membership Fee Income ($USD Millions)$120.4
Digitally-Enabled Comp Sales Growth YoY (%)+35%
Merchandise Gross Margin Rate Change (bps YoY)+30 bps
SG&A ($USD Millions)$760.9
Effective Tax Rate (%)22.2% (Q1 driven by tax windfall)

Estimate vs. Actual (Q1 2026)

MetricConsensus*Actual
Adjusted EPS ($USD)$0.91*$1.14
Total Revenues ($USD Billions)$5.185*$5.153
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$260.4*$285.836 (Adjusted)

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Comparable Club Sales ex-GasFY2025+2.0% to +3.5% +2.0% to +3.5% Maintained
Adjusted EPSFY2025$4.10–$4.30 $4.10–$4.30 Maintained
Capital ExpendituresFY2025≈$800M ≈$800M Maintained
Effective Tax RateFY2025≈27% Reiterated framework (Q1 at 22.2% from windfall) Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2025, Q4 2025)Current Period (Q1 2026)Trend
Digital & AILaunched AI-powered search; digital comps +30% in Q3; ~60% members engage digitally, ExpressPay usage growing Digital comps +35%; AI + autonomous robots reduced pick time by >45% Accelerating
Fresh 2.0Produce comps low double-digit; improved NPS; fresh growing faster than market Chain-wide launch to meat/seafood; produce still high single-digit to low double-digit units Expansion
Tariffs/MacroNot contemplated in FY25 guidance; lesser exposure vs peers; value focus Embedded scenario ranges; resourcing and assortment changes; agile stance Increased focus
Membership Mix39% higher-tier; 7.5M members; fee increase planned Higher-tier penetration >40%, +100bps QoQ; MFI +8.1% Rising
Fuel BusinessComp gallons nearly +3% Comp gallons ~+2%; profit/gal above LY Share gains sustained
Real EstateOpened 3 clubs/4 gas; largest pipeline 5 clubs/4 gas opened; 25–30 clubs next 2 years; relocations Accelerating

Management Commentary

  • “We grew net sales by nearly 5%…operating income and net income growth of 27% and 35%” (CEO) .
  • “Higher tier membership penetration…surpassing 40% for the first time in our history” (CEO) .
  • “Digitally-enabled comp sales grew by 35%…reduce[d] the time required to pick an item by over 45% using…autonomous inventory robots and AI” (CEO) .
  • “We are keeping our initial full year guidance unchanged…$4.10 to $4.30 in adjusted earnings per share” (CFO) .
  • “Tariffs…we import less than many competitors…resourcing items from different countries…eliminating items where elasticity doesn’t make sense” (CEO) .

Q&A Highlights

  • Real estate acceleration and pipeline quality: management targets 25–30 clubs over next two fiscal years; strong new club performance and relocations planned (e.g., Mechanicsburg, PA; Rotterdam, NY) .
  • Margin cadence and investment: value remains “North Star”; comps expected to be stronger in H1 (Q1 high watermark) versus H2; perishables mix impacts contribution margins below gross margin .
  • Tariffs embedded in the outlook ranges; active mitigation via sourcing/assortment/vendor collaboration; maintain member-first pricing decisions .
  • Fresh 2.0 into meat/seafood: produce and meat categories are similar in size; early meat results encouraging; potential multiplier effect on trips and renewal .
  • Digital convenience economics: incremental baskets and loyalty offset picking costs; ExpressPay adoption rising; majority of digital fulfilled in-club .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 FY2025 adjusted EPS beat: $1.14 vs $0.91 consensus*, driven by strong traffic/membership, 30 bps YoY merchandise margin rate improvement, and gas profit per gallon above last year .
  • Revenues slightly below: $5.153B vs $5.185B consensus*; mix shift toward perishables and softness in big-ticket GM categories (weather/consumer sentiment) explained the dynamic .
  • EBITDA outperformance: adjusted EBITDA $285.8M vs $260.4M consensus*; merchandising discipline, own brands, and digital efficiencies supported profitability .
    Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Membership mix shift is a durable earnings lever: higher-tier penetration >40% and rising, supporting renewal, trips, and lifetime value .
  • Fresh 2.0 is broadening to meat/seafood, designed to make BJ’s a weekly fresh destination; expect sustained traffic support even if margin contribution below gross margin increases .
  • Digital scale with practical AI delivers operational leverage and loyalty; continued investment should sustain double-digit digital growth .
  • Guidance hold signals confidence, but tariff/macro uncertainty widens outcome ranges; expect tactical pricing and sourcing actions to protect member value .
  • Real estate playbook (25–30 clubs over two years) and relocations can compound comp contribution and membership gains—capital intensity in SG&A/depreciation near term is strategy-consistent .
  • Near-term trading: EPS beat and margin proof points vs. maintained guide are positive; monitor GM softness and tariff headlines for sentiment swings .
  • Medium-term thesis: structurally advantaged value model, higher membership quality, growing own brands/digital, and footprint expansion underpin sustainable growth.